Long thought of a pioneer in renewables, the Nordic area is making ready to develop its renewable capability additional and change into a significant powerhouse for Europe. Thanks to wind energy, hydrogen electrolyzer, nuclear energy, and carbon storage initiatives, Rystad Energy has recognized Sweden, Finland, and Denmark as leaders within the inexperienced revolution providing options, with classes for the remainder of Europe because it appears to decarbonize its power system quickly.
On onshore wind and utility-scale photo voltaic PV era, Rystad Energy expects capability in these three international locations to develop from a collective 30 gigawatts (GW) in 2022 to 74 GW by 2030. With electrical energy output anticipated to exceed their want, these international locations will export massive volumes of inexperienced energy to Europe, serving to present the area with secure provide at low costs.
Almost 40 inexperienced hydrogen initiatives are poised to start-up within the area by 2030 or earlier, giving Denmark, Sweden, and Finland a mixed 18% of Europe’s electrolyzer capability for inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing. This, mixed with Denmark’s potential to retailer carbon within the North Sea, will go a big means towards serving to Europe decarbonize heavy industries equivalent to metal and cement.
“The Nordics at present produce over 90% of their power (including nuclear) via renewables and are significant electricity exporters to the rest of Europe. That trend will intensify as geography, technology and managerial experience in the region will see renewable investment and generation increase. This will be welcome news to heavy industries in the region as Europe seeks to cut emissions”, says Francesca Bjørnflaten, senior analyst, renewables at Rystad Energy
Past, current, and future power combine
All 5 international locations within the Nordic area – Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Iceland – have set targets to supply much more energy from zero-carbon sources, with some aiming to change into main exporters of unpolluted power. With most energy in Norway and Iceland generated by hydropower (75%) and these two international locations aren’t set to deploy a considerable quantity of wind power sooner or later, they’ve been excluded from this evaluation.
For many years, the Nordic area has been on the forefront of the power transition and now has among the cleanest power mixes on this planet. However, there are massive country-specific variations in the best way during which these international locations are dealing with the power transition. The chart under reveals the historic energy era combine for Sweden, Finland, and Denmark over the past 20 years, along with Rystad Energy’s present base case forecast in the direction of 2030. This highlights the big nation variations each in dimension and composition of their energy mixes, in addition to the anticipated progress for various sources going ahead.
Sweden has by far the biggest energy era capability within the Nordic area and is the sixth largest in Europe behind Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Spain. Sweden’s energy combine has traditionally been dominated by nuclear and hydropower. In current years, onshore wind has grown strongly and is now the nation’s third-largest supply of electrical energy. Sweden’s massive nuclear fleet is beginning to age, with the newly elected authorities proposing to develop capability to interchange or complement its six operational reactors unfold throughout three websites: Ringhals, Forsmark, and Oskarshamn. Sweden was the biggest electrical energy exporter in Europe for the primary three quarters of 2022, promoting over 20% of its complete era to neighboring international locations. An enormous, deliberate enlargement of era capability will allow it to proceed being a powerhouse for Europe, exporting clear and low-cost energy.
Wind energy dominates renewables combine
Denmark, Sweden, and Finland are planning so as to add to their renewable era capability significantly within the years to come back. In the three international locations mixed, Rystad Energy expects onshore wind and utility-scale photo voltaic PV alone to develop from 32 GW in 2022 to 74 GW by 2030. Onshore wind would be the dominant power supply, accounting for 61.5 GW of the put in capability with the remaining 12.8 GW to come back from photo voltaic PV:
- Sweden is about to put in 30 GW of onshore wind by 2030, a part of its plan of changing into a big power exporter, with simply 3 GW of photo voltaic PV anticipated to be added over the interval. Long time period, Sweden goals to supply 65% of its era capability from renewables by 2030 in comparison with 23% presently, rising to 100% by 2040.
- Finland is about to ramp up onshore wind capability from 5 GW in 2022 to twenty GW by 2030. Only 0.8 GW of recent put in capability is anticipated to come back from photo voltaic PV. By 2030, Finland is aiming for 51% of its energy era to be renewables-based in comparison with 17% at current.
- Denmark’s energy combine already consists of primarily renewable power (70%) and is now aiming for renewables to carry a 55% share of its general power consumption by 2030. In phrases of renewable power sources, Denmark will develop onshore wind capability by 11.5 GW and photo voltaic PV by 9 GW as much as 2030. Offshore wind capability will rise from 2.3 GW presently to eight.8 GW by the tip of this decade.
Off the coast however on the grid
Denmark is among the pioneers of offshore wind know-how, leveraging its technical prowess with accessible acreage within the North Sea and Baltic Sea. It is now one of many 5 largest offshore wind markets in Europe, with additional capability additions probably within the coming many years to assist meet Europe’s low-carbon energy wants. This yr, the Danish authorities set a brand new goal to deploy 12.9 GW of offshore wind capability by 2030, a 4 GW improve from the earlier mark. It follows Denmark’s pledge to contribute to the Esbjerg Declaration alongside Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium. This goals for 65 GW of offshore wind to be put in by the 4 international locations by 2030 and 150 GW by 2050.
The under graph reveals that the mixed capability forecast for these 4 international locations solely quantities to about 50 GW by 2030, with Denmark reaching some 9 GW by the identical yr, which means that extra additions might want to come on-line this decade. Denmark can also be collaborating within the Marienborg Declaration by way of which eight international locations within the Baltic Sea have dedicated to putting in virtually 20 GW of offshore wind capability by 2030. Rystad Energy expects seven nations (excluding Latvia because the commissioning of an offshore wind farm there may be unlikely earlier than 2030) to surpass the 19.6 GW mark. The Marienborg Declaration has additionally been signed by Sweden and Finland, that are forecast to put in a mixed 6 GW of offshore wind capability by 2030.
Sea of hydrogen alternatives
While two power islands in Denmark have been devoted to offshore wind, islands devoted to producing ‘green’ hydrogen might additionally change into a actuality. Denmark, Sweden, and Finland have introduced virtually 40 separate inexperienced hydrogen initiatives with start-up scheduled for 2030 or earlier. The mixed share of electrolyzer capability for inexperienced hydrogen manufacturing within the three international locations will comprise about 18% of the European market by 2030. This is predicated on present bulletins, showcasing the significance of the Nordic international locations – particularly Denmark (12% share in 2030) and Sweden (5% share in 2030) – for Europe’s uptake of inexperienced hydrogen.
Sweden is in search of to decarbonize the metal trade by changing coal with renewable power and inexperienced hydrogen to supply ‘green’ metal. The manufacturing course of will use inexperienced hydrogen as a feedstock to straight scale back iron ore, creating ‘sponge iron’ as an intermediate product. Steel can be produced by melting sponge iron, leading to a discount in emissions. According to Swedish metal maker H2 Green Steel, it’s potential to cut back CO2 emissions by 95% when producing inexperienced metal, in contrast with conventional, coal-based steel-making methods.
In 2021, H2 Green Steel introduced plans to supply as much as 5 million tonnes every year (Mtpa) of inexperienced metal by 2030 utilizing complete electrolyzer capability of round 800 MW. At the time of writing, that is the biggest introduced hydrogen electrolyzer in Sweden. Swedish three way partnership HYBRIT can also be seeking to produce 1.2 Mtpa of crude metal as early as 2026 via the ‘HYBRIT demonstration project which is supported by the EU Innovation Fund. Currently, HYBRIT is operating a pilot plant in north Sweden (Luleaa) to produce green steel using a 4.5 MW alkaline electrolyzer supplied by Norwegian company NEL. As part of the HYBRIT pilot project, a hydrogen storage facility in Luleaa was commissioned in September. It will initially operate for two years and consists of a 100-square meter rock cavern able to store green hydrogen at maximum pressure of 250 bar.
Denmark also looking to CCS
In 2020, Denmark, Finland and Sweden accounted for about 4% of the EU’s greenhouse fuel emissions, excluding emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Emissions come primarily from industrial sources, equivalent to iron and metal manufacturing services that are primarily positioned in Finland and Sweden. It additionally consists of emissions from hard-to-abate industries, equivalent to cement, which have few choices to decarbonize other than carbon seize and storage (CCS). Denmark has important storage availability from onshore saline aquifers, however the nation can also be extraordinarily properly suited to CO2 storage inside the North Sea. With easy accessibility to the North Sea and the remainder of mainland Europe, excessive storage volumes with low level supply emissions coupled with the excessive demand for CO2 storage within the surrounding areas, Denmark has nice potential for changing into a most important storage hub in Europe because the EU strives to satisfy its local weather targets.
By Rystad Energy
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